The MOAB's - An Unthinkable Black Swan Event: ACA Repeal/Recession/Pandemic Flu

May 9, 2017

With repeal of the ACA, fair or unfair, millions are projected to lose HC coverage. What happens when the next vicious recession rips the economy to shreds and millions more join the ranks of the unemployed? Under the proposed AHCA legislation, arguably these workers and their families would eventually lose their HC coverage; weakening society as a whole.

 

This concern should not be discounted. Multiple indicators point to a looming recession. In recent decades we’ve avoided widespread shocking HC crises. Crises such as: bird flu, SARS and Ebola. What happens if a devastating flu pandemic similar to 1918 - 1919 struck and afflicted 25% to 30% of the world-wide population? 80-90 million US citizens would fall gravely ill. With a fatality rate of 2.5% to 3%, approximately 2 million Americans would perish, most dying an excruciating death. Many who succumbed to this strain of flu would be healthy 20-40 year old adults.

 

If this black swan event occurred, especially during recession when the total number of uninsured had peaked, it would be the Mother of All Bombs. The sustainability of the US healthcare system would be at risk. If it collapsed, the U.S economy would plunge into a death spiral. To comprehend the plausibility of this seemingly unthinkable event, read The Republican Bond – Returning Negative Yields. Because when yields to society turn negative, creative destruction is sure to follow.

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